An Occasional Win

A quick skip back through earlier posts will tell you that I often come off worse in favourable situations. Yes, despite the leaks in my games and the numerous times I’ve made bad plays, I am also horribly unlucky – as is indicated by my expected value in all-in situations being about 20% above my actual all-in winnings.

I am – at least at times when my confidence isn’t completely shredded – willing to mix it up with the best hand. And it’s always nice to hold Aces preflop and find the person pushing their chips in against you has just the hand you were hoping they had. Run cold like this, even 22 is a favourite over AK, and AA completely crushes it. Flop has a K? No problem. The case A? Fine. Both to make two pair? That’s a set for me, thank you.

                 equity         
Hand 0:     93.172%      { AA }
Hand 1:     06.828%      { AKo }

Since I looked again at my game and changed the way I play the turn especially, I’ve had a minor overall loss in just one session (due to a very bad play on my part – time to quit for the day) and am up about 300bbs. The main thing is, despite running bad (two 20+ bb losses with more than 70% equity all-in), it feels like I’m playing more solidly and worrying less about making costly blunders.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold’em – 5 players – View hand 256928

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $5.18

Hero (BB): $7.05

UTG: $1.78

CO: $5.02

BTN: $5.56

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with A A

1 fold, CO raises to $0.17, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, CO raises to $1.52, Hero raises to $4.50, CO raises to $5.02 all in, Hero calls $0.52

Arguably my reraise here should have been larger, but it was roughly pot sized and served the purpose of leaving the CO with the difficult decision whether to jettison his hand after 4 betting me, which would have been costly.

Flop: ($10.06) Q J 2

Turn: ($10.06) J

River: ($10.06) 5

Final Pot: $10.06

Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Jacks)

CO shows A K (a pair of Jacks)

Hero wins $9.39

(Rake: $0.67)

Red Line News

I noticed that repulsive British tabloid paper the Daily Express, run by crazed pornographer Richard Desmond, has started underlining their headlines in red – which is surely only something that could have been instituted by Desmond himself. I’m sure if he could make the headline blink, he would.

Where was I? Ah yes, red lines.

On Hold Em Manager or Pokertracker, the win graph can be split into three lines – blue, green and red.

The blue line indicates how much you win at showdown, and is usually positive. A negative blue line would indicate someone playing too loose and playing passively with medium strength or weaker hands.

The green line is your overall winnings. Hopefully, this is positive. It may not be, and if not, understanding why not is more of a challenge than working out why the showdown line looks as it does.

The third line – the red line – is winnings without showdown. To get this positive, it’s necessary to ensure that you get more value out of getting other people to fold than you lose out of folding yourself. Unlike the blue showdown line, there is a large amount of mystery at work. If someone folds, it’s because they think they have a weaker hand, but it’s never a certainty that they actually did.

My red line has been solidly negative since I started playing and has rarely moved from that steady decline. This means, indisputably, that I am losing more value by folding than I am gaining by causing other players to fold. As the most prominent part of my game I need to address at present, I’ve been reading a lot about the relevance of non showdown winnings.

My major weak point has been the turn. Recognising the value of the turn as the point at which a hand is often defined led me to be lazy and too keen to check behind in position without a very strong holding. This is bad for two reasons; if I get to showdown, the pot is smaller. If I don’t, then by showing weakness I’m inviting my opponent to try to move me off my hand and losing the advantage of position (assuming I have it).

I feel over the past few weeks that I’ve deconstructed my game and made an effort to achieve tangible improvements. In my last session, I tried to be less passive – not more aggressive, but less passive, checking less and worrying less about pot control in situations where I was likely to have the best hand but wasn’t sure. I lost a couple of hands at showdown that made me cringe slightly, one with 78s that completely missed the flop but against a very tight passive player who I thought would fold. He didn’t and I lost a 30bb pot. But I played a set the same way a few hands later and he shipped it back to me with interest.

The red line, for the first time ever, showed a slight upturn at the end of the session.

It’s still a little bit uncomfortable for me to play in the way I am, but worth persevering with – I know folding too easily is my problem currently and calling more is never an answer, so better selective aggression seems a better choice.

The Curse Continues

Run into a crisis of confidence recently and am becoming increasingly wary of getting my money in even when I know I’m a big favourite. This kind of thing (the river two outer below) keeps happening far more often than is probable. I genuinely can’t remember the last time I was all in as favourite and won the hand, and I’m almost never all and win when I’m not favourite. The difference between my expected and actual winnings is now somewhere in the region of $60, about a third of my current bankroll.

I’m not fgators (google the 2+2 thread) and I’m not an optimist. I’m losing regularly not due to bad beats but due to bad play. My game needs a lot of work and I know that I’m missing a lot of value by playing weakly on the turn. A lot of players in the micros will bet pot on the river with missed draws, any piece of the board or Ax if a player in position checks the turn, and I’ve fallen into a pattern with draws or medium strength hands like top pair good kicker where I continuation bet the flop, check the turn and then fold to a bet on a river that doesn’t improve my hand. This weak play on the flop and turn, usually in position and as pre flop raiser, leads me to lose 4+ big blinds every 10 – 20 hands, which is seldom compensated often enough to make it viable. And even in spots where I’m almost guaranteed a pay off, it’s not going my way:

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players – View hand 234987

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $6.48

MP: $5.05

CO: $4.26

Hero (BTN): $5.36

SB: $5.20

BB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A A

UTG raises to $0.17, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.28

Flop: ($0.97) 7 2 3 (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.17) 8 (2 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $1.35, UTG raises to $5.43 all in, Hero calls $2.96 all in

River: ($10.79) Q (2 players – 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $10.79

UTG shows Q Q (three of a kind, Queens)

Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)

UTG wins $10.08

(Rake: $0.71)

Still looking for the leaks

The problem with my play currently isn’t finding leaks as much as knowing which of them is costing me the most. I have, not to put too fine a point on it, been playing dreadfully. I moved up to 10NL (0.05/0.10) recently after making the recommended bankroll and switched to 6Max from Full Ring for various reasons, such as more hands per hour and simply the fact that I was crushing the game, pushing my bankroll up 20% in 48 hours.

Now, unfortunately, I’m down to 75% of what I had when I moved up and I have to acknowledge what the facts are telling me – my game needs work. A lot of work. More than the videos I’ve watched and the books I’ve read. I read a forum post recently about a player who’d lost $1k – playing 5NL, which surely takes some enormous self delusion. If I was ever down even a tenth of that I’d take a break (possibly a permanent one).

Anyway, variance aside (my win graph over the past few weeks looks like a representation of a mountain range, with a very steep downwards slope towards the end) I am going to go busto if I continue losing at the current rate. It does frustrate me that I can lose a full buy in to a donkey playing 45% of hands and no concept of outs or odds, but strangely it seems to happen time and time again. I’m beginning to get discouraged by it all. I may have to join deucescracked.com or a similar site for some training videos, and if that doesn’t help I will have to play fucking canasta or something.

I am down 650bb for July because of asshats like this:

The SB and I have a bit of history – he’s been bluffing and stealing relentlessly, showing many of them and being overaggro with hands like 94o – random trash. He’s up a full buy in basically by running over the table and has already won a few 15bb pots from me with straight out bluffs, playing 63% of hands, cold calling with anything and folding to less than 20% of continuation bets on the flop. I know not to go crazy with these kinds of players because they will stack you when they finally turn up with a hand. I’ve made a note to be especially aware not to play weak-tight against him, e.g. folding pairs to a c-bet, as this guy will fire on every street with any two cards (although it’s not like I try to play weak tight at other times!).

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players – View hand 181942

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $13.06

CO: $20.17

BTN: $12.04

SB: $11.02

BB: $10.00

UTG: $0.84

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with 4 4

UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.30

I’m in position here with one limper – perhaps best to raise pre-flop to $0.50, although immaterial given the way the hand played out. Our fishy villain calls as expected but we pick up a call from the UTG limper as well. That extra 10c on the raise might have made the difference.

Flop: ($1.30) T T 6 (3 players)

SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Well, I missed the flop, and Tx is definitely within the fish’s range (what isn’t?) but there are two checks so I don’t see a reason to bet here when I can have a free card.

Turn: ($1.30) 4 (3 players)

SB bets $0.40, UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.20, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $12.66 all in, SB calls $7.62 all in

Well, that doesn’t happen very often. I have the nuts. Little less than a pot sized bet is likely to induce fish to raise me, even better if he has a hand like KT or AT, which would be consistent with his play. I might be behind quads here but dismiss the thought as ridiculous as fish would have probably stuck it all in pre-flop. Shit, what if he has T6? Or 66? Shhh… stop it!

Fish does raise me and I’m just going to shove over the top, because I have the nuts and he has four outs assuming he has the T, which I am now pretty sure he does (although he could have air as in the previous hands he’s gleefully shown crap)

OK, we’re both all in and he shows T Q for trips, as expected. Cue 0.5 seconds of joy before the soul crushing river fuck.

River: ($22.54) Q (2 players – 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $22.54

Hero shows 4 4 (a full house, Fours full of Tens)

SB shows T Q (a full house, Tens full of Queens)

SB wins $21.04

(Rake: $1.50)

I went a bit tilty at this point and had to quit.

First Impressions of Pot Limit Omaha

Every session playing PLO high – almost every session, anyway – I win. Often, it’s enough to reverse my NLHE downswings (more about that later). I’d like to think it’s because I know a bit about how to play but the fact is that the tables are full of bored NLHE fish. They get dealt something like AJ22 and make a set of deuces on the flop, think it’s the nuts because any time they hit any set in hold em they can’t wait to get the rest of their short stack in, then the shellshock sets in when they end up finding they’ve lost to a broadway straight, which in turn lost to Jacks full.

Omaha is like shotgun poker – a lot of the time you’ll hit something. Occasionally, you’ll hit so strongly the rest of the hand can play itself.

The two things I like to remind myself about PLO:

1) I read a post by Vanessa Selbst (who I greatly admire) where she channeled Scotty Nguyen – “bottom set, no good!” – and it’s worth bearing in mind every hand. The median hand in NLHE is two pair, and anyone with bottom two pair would be wise not to play it wildly. In PLO, two pair is only worth a punt if the pot odds are right to draw, which they often are if the other players are really bad (hence my uncanny win rate playing the microstakes tables). I only get the ‘flopped a set’ feeling I get with NLHE when I flop a full house in PLO.

2) Four cards preflop doesn’t mean two to throw away and two to keep, or even one to throw away and three to keep. You need to start with four cards working together. Preflop, I like to think of my hole cards as both a) one PLO hand and b) two Hold Em hands. The reasoning being – a) how precisely do I need to hit the flop? Ideally, I want to make a set, an open ended straight draw or the nut flush draw, so A952 all different suits isn’t going to cut it. b) I have to use two hole cards with three from the board. I think lots of the new PLO players forget this momentarily and think that one or two hole cards with three or four from the board is fine. It might be counterintuitive to think of my PLO hole cards in terms of two sets of NLHE hole cards but it makes sense after the flop. I can concentrate on the two hole cards that give me the best made hand or best outs to give me an idea of what my final hand is going to look like, as long as I don’t forget the outs that come from my ‘reserve’ cards.

About the NLHE downswings – I’ve come across a lot of shortstacks recently and have seen them described on forums as ‘short stack rat bastards’. I’m talking about the kind of player who folds every hand until they get JJ+ and then shoves all in with their 20bb stack. I haven’t done a great deal of research into the odds but it doesn’t seem like I’m getting the best of it if I 3bet with AKs and give my opponent free cards all the way to the river, so I usually wait until I have JJ+ in better position and raise enough that the rat bastard has to call more than half of his stack to see the flop (strangely, the microstakes rat bastards often just call in this spot and then fold to a continuation bet. Seriously).

Anyway – the NLHE progress is not good for May. I recently lost a big post against a nitty regular where I reraised with AA in position to have him shove all in and turn over KK. I would have rather seen, erm, AJ or something but knew I was in good shape. I’d just managed to type ‘classic!’ into the chat box, enjoying the match up, when we saw the flop and he made a set which improved to a full house on the river. That was especially upsetting – losing with an overpair to a full house – as although I made the right play, it really doesn’t look that way.

I hate AK

It was my birthday recently and one of my presents was Harrington on Cash Games Vol. 1. I’ve been poring over it for the past couple of weeks and trying to absorb as much advice as possible. There’s a lot to learn and a lot I’ve picked up – one of the points that stands out is play with AK.

I read the forums on deucescracked.com regularly and noticed a thread from a regular poster a while back; he’d had such a bad run with AK that he was thinking about automatically folding it in future. Of course, in tournament play, that’s not a good idea. AK in tournament play is the kind of hand you can double up with.

In full ring cash games, AK is a bit shit. Sure, you can make money with it, but it would take a miracle to double up with it in a full ring cash game. Let’s take the example of AK off suit, as if you flop a flush or two to a flush with AKs you’re obviously going to be happy. But what about AK off suit?

Let’s take middle position as an example – one limper and you raise to 3x BB in middle position with As Kd. It’s folded round to the button who calls; the blinds fold. The early position limper calls the extra. For a microstakes game, this is bread and butter, a routine situation with AKo.

The flop comes 6d 9c Qh – rainbow flop with only a very small likelyhood of someone having an open ended straight draw with 87 or JT. Small, but considering the play – let’s say the button is a stronger player than the early limper – either or both of them could have exactly that hand. And we have Ace high.

Obviously AK is a drawing hand but what can come down on the flop that a) fits and b) won’t make the other players run for the hills?

If we hit QJT on the flop for a straight draw, the likelihood of getting any post flop action is virtually nil. Even the worst fish isn’t going to bet or raise without a set and any decent player is going to fold and wait for a better opportunity.

If we hit AKx on the flop for two pair, we might get a bit of action from someone with AQ or a lower A but against a decent table the pot’s going to go down on the flop. Any aggressive action from a good player is likely to mean they’re holding AA (which just crushes AK, I think the odds of AKo winning against AA is about 5%) or KK (which I think is about 17%).

If we hit a Axx on the flop without flush or straight draws, even then it’s not the kind of situation where it’s time to think about how to get all the chips into the pot. Kxx is slightly better as we have the A kicker, but shoving in that spot would only get a call from someone with a set or something more likely than not to beat top pair top kicker.

In short, which other unsuited connector hands would you play and push hard in that situation? You’d want to play from late position and make sure the pot didn’t go apeshit after the flop. Which means no felting action for you. Save it for the tournaments.

(I reserve the right to withdraw all of these notes when I next win a big pot with AK – in fact, AK is a very profitable hand for me, but only because I play aggressively with it and rarely show it down)

There’s a joke – the definition of a thinking fish is someone who
thinks about your hole cards and always puts you on AK. And therein
lies the problem.

Snowmen

I love 88. You reverse my downswings, you rescue me from donks and suckouts. The fish don’t expect you and the board loves you. I do too.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

CO ($3.95)

Button ($2.74)

SB ($6.99)

BB ($8.74)

UTG ($10)

UTG+1 ($18.68)

Hero (MP1) ($10)

MP2 ($12.86)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8, 8

1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds, SB calls $0.13, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.60) 2, 8, J (4 players)

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.35) 7 (3 players)

SB checks, BB bets $1.35, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB raises to $8.34 (All-In), Hero calls $3.34

River: ($18.03) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $18.03 | Rake: $1.20

Results:

BB had 10, 9 (straight, Jack high).

Hero had 8, 8 (full house, eights over twos).

Outcome: Hero won $16.83

Slow Playing Sets…

This is why it’s not a good idea:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1.70)

BB ($8.46)

UTG ($4.86)

UTG+1 ($8.95)

MP1 ($6.19)

MP2 ($6.97)

MP3 ($17.34)

Hero (CO) ($12.08)

Button ($6.63)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A

1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.05, Button calls $0.05, SB calls $0.03, BB checks

I’m flatting here because the button is a complete and utter maniac who’s been on a 400bb swing over the past 50 or so hands.

Flop: ($0.25) 7, Q, 4 (5 players)

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, SB calls $0.20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.85) 9 (3 players)

SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.85) A (3 players)

SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.35, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.65, Hero raises to $3.50, UTG+1 raises to $5.35, Hero calls $1.85

After the reraise, I had a little pause, trying to work out how I was beaten. I would have folded in seconds if there’d been a flush, straight or a paired board out there. I couldn’t see a hand that’d beat me.

I think I could have felted him but frankly the reraising was getting a little boring.

Total pot: $11.55 | Rake: $0.55

Results:

UTG+1 had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).

Hero had A, A (three of a kind, Aces).

Outcome: Hero won $11

Brutal

Some days poker is just brutal. I had the day off work so played many more hands than I usually do as I’m close to building my bankroll up to moving  to 5c/10c… or at least, I was.

I haven’t played badly today, in that I was making steady progress, showing a profit in all of the games, but I ran into some real trouble on several big hands. I won’t go into details as no-one wants to read bad beat stories, but it will suffice for me to say that I lost a full buy in with a full house, twice; set over set, once, and won one hand with pocket queens against a guy who was playing pocket fours like they were aces, only to lose the winnings from that hand with pocket kings vs pocket aces next hand.

The last full buy in I lost hurt the most as the villain slow played a flopped full house right to the river, just calling my value bets and then donk betting. That’s nothing unusual – anyone in the micros who holds and ace and flops one is going to play the hand like they have the nuts.

So I’m still soaking up as much advice as I can and yet I keep losing hands against villains who have no concept of pot odds or position. As tempting as it is to think that it’ll balance out in the long run, and as reassuring as it was to have a strong finish in the UK and Ireland Poker League last night, the suckouts are getting expensive.

Sure, I’ve more than trebled my original buy in from November but I should be beating 2c/5c and, right now, it’s not happening. Although I know swings can be brutal, I don’t want to lie to myself and assume it’s going to turn around.

I’ll keep on grinding until I beat this level. I’d hoped that would have been much sooner than it will be now.

First Steps

If you were teaching someone how to play hold ‘em, what would you start with?

I’m sure I’ll change my mind by the middle of next week, but for now, mine would be:

“Bad players can’t be bluffed; if it’s a choice between the two, it’s better to lay down the best hand than to call with the second best”