Run into a crisis of confidence recently and am becoming increasingly wary of getting my money in even when I know I’m a big favourite. This kind of thing (the river two outer below) keeps happening far more often than is probable. I genuinely can’t remember the last time I was all in as favourite and won the hand, and I’m almost never all and win when I’m not favourite. The difference between my expected and actual winnings is now somewhere in the region of $60, about a third of my current bankroll.
I’m not fgators (google the 2+2 thread) and I’m not an optimist. I’m losing regularly not due to bad beats but due to bad play. My game needs a lot of work and I know that I’m missing a lot of value by playing weakly on the turn. A lot of players in the micros will bet pot on the river with missed draws, any piece of the board or Ax if a player in position checks the turn, and I’ve fallen into a pattern with draws or medium strength hands like top pair good kicker where I continuation bet the flop, check the turn and then fold to a bet on a river that doesn’t improve my hand. This weak play on the flop and turn, usually in position and as pre flop raiser, leads me to lose 4+ big blinds every 10 – 20 hands, which is seldom compensated often enough to make it viable. And even in spots where I’m almost guaranteed a pay off, it’s not going my way:
Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players – View hand 234987
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG: $6.48
MP: $5.05
CO: $4.26
Hero (BTN): $5.36
SB: $5.20
BB: $5.00
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A
A
UTG raises to $0.17, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.28
Flop: ($0.97) 7 2 3
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.17) 8
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.35, UTG raises to $5.43 all in, Hero calls $2.96 all in
River: ($10.79) Q (2 players – 2 are all in)
Final Pot: $10.79
UTG shows Q Q (three of a kind, Queens)
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
UTG wins $10.08
(Rake: $0.71)
